One of the questions occupying political pundits in Kenya is
about Raila 2022 plans. Over the years, Raila has established himself as a
hugely influential politician in Kenya, and probably one of the fulcrums around
which Kenya politics revolves. Therefore, as we hurtle towards the 2022 Kenya
presidential elections, one can’t help wondering what Railas gameplan will be.
Now, of course, it is only Raila himself who knows what is
2022 gameplan is. The rest of us can only speculate. Perhaps even Raila himself
is waiting to see how things shape up, before making a decision on how he would
proceed. So perhaps even Raila himself doesn’t have a conclusive answer as to
what his 2022 game plan is like.
Yet there are some likely scenarios, in as far as Raila’s
2022 gameplan goes.
One option is where Raila could opt to run for president, for yet another time. Raila commands a massive following, and there are people who
have come to convince themselves that only a Raila Presidency can solve Kenya’s
problems. So if he were to offer himself for election as President, he would
still get some good votes.
Another option is where Raila could opt to back someone
else. That ‘someone’ else could be Kalonzo Musyoka, William Ruto, Matiang’i or whoever
else he may be inclined to back. An endorsement from Raila can go a long way
towards helping someone win the presidency. Having Raila as your backer while
running for the presidency is akin to having the DC as your referee while applying for a Kenyan passport. It enhances your chances of success
considerably. Or to use another analogy, having Raila endorse you while running
for President of Kenya is akin to having your original long hand birth notification while going to apply for a Kenya birth certificate online. It makes things much
easier, and enhances your chances of success considerably. As the 2002
experience showed us, Raila is a strong kingmaker, much as his own presidential
runs have ended in controversy most of the time.
Yet another option is where Raila could opt to run for
another position, especially if there is a referendum that creates different
positions (such as those of premiership).
Whatever
the case, Kenyans are watching keenly to see Raila’s next move.
